College Football Preview 2011: ACC (Part One)

In 2011, I consider the ACC to be the second worst conference in the nation ahead of the Big East. There were virtually only two teams that made a difference in terms of the college gridiron landscape in 2010. Those being Florida State, and of course, Virginia Tech. On the flip side, this was a conference that displayed a few teams with losing records. And with all of the trouble and turmoil North Carolina and Miami have created, look for the same teams to emerge while the worse turn to worst. For this preview, I have broken down the ACC into two parts: the Atlantic Division and the Coastal Division. The winners of each will face each other in a showdown for the ACC Championship on December 3rd in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Atlantic Division
 
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: There is not much else to say about a team that gave up a minimum of 24 points each game of the season in 2010. Their defense was absolutely horrid all year long and never showed any sign of improvement. On average, the Demon Deacons' defense allowed an average of 41 points per game. And when their offense struggled, which was often, by averaging only 17 points per game, it doesn't take an MIT major to figure out there were some lopsided downers in 2010. My crystal ball tells me the 3-9 record that was suffered last year will be mirrored again this season. If this team can't get by non-conference opponent Gardner Webb in the 3rd game of the season, I'll be shaking my head.
 
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack: You might be questioning why I have N.C. State ranked so low in this division, let alone the conference, after they turned in a 9-4 record last season. Well, my reasoning is due to the loss of their former superstar quarterback Russell Wilson, who bolted for the Badgers of Wisconsin. The offensive numbers that Wilson produced in 2010 for the Wolfpack simply cannot be replaced by junior Mike Glennon. Wilson threw for over 3,500 yards and had a combined 37 touchdowns through the air and on the ground. So not only did they lose a huge production guy, the lost the dual threat aspect at the quarterback position as well. Not to mention Glennon has thrown a whopping 52 passes in his entire college career. They'll get a break this year with Virginia Tech left off the schedule, but they stand absolutely no chance at defeating conference powerhouse Florida State. That competition will turn ugly in a hurry. Look for the Wolfpack to finish up at 4-8 in the 2011 season.

4. Boston College Eagles: This team showed some promise at the end of 2010 after winning their last five regular season games only to lose by 6 points to then #15 ranked Nevada in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. And even though the Eagles finished with a 4-4 conference record, they posted fairly good numbers against the likes of Florida State (5 point loss) in Tallahassee and while Maryland (3 point loss). Although they'll be under experienced at the quarterback position, expect the Eagles to be led by star running back Montel Harris who returns for his senior season. Harris has posted great numbers the past two seasons at Boston College, exceeding the 1,000 yard rushing mark in both seasons. He also has had 22 touchdowns in a combined 33 games. The Eagles also boast a defense that will be carried by six seniors. Expect BC to reel off five straight wins before the real schedule starts on Oct. 8th when they travel to Clemson.
 
3. Clemson Tigers: Despite making a bowl appearance last season, I expect another mediocre year from the Tigers in 2011. They typically put good talent on the field but usually have a difficult time pulling out wins from the schedule. A 6-6 record in 2011 looks about right here. Quarterback Kyle Parker should improve his numbers this season after posting over 2,000 yards passing the previous two years. He needs to improve on his touchdown to interception ratio if he wants his team to be a contender. Another player on the offense who looks to be budding is junior running back Andre Ellington. While he didn't play after Oct. 30th last season, he still ran for almost 700 yards and 10 touchdowns in only 8 games. Another supporting factor for Parker and Ellington to have greater production is the offensive line returns four seniors and one junior. They'll be tested early with back-to-back games against Florida State and Virginia Tech. But if they can get past those juggernauts they should coast the rest of the way as they'll face the weaker teams in the ACC.
 
2. Maryland Terrapins: The Terps had a pretty impressive 2010 ride. They finished 9-4 on the season including a statement bowl victory over East Carolina by 31 points in the Military Bowl. Even though they play Miami right out of the gate to open the season, they leave Virginia Tech off of the schedule in 2011, play at Florida State mid-season and finish their final three conference games against weak competition. Running back Da'Rel Scott will look to improve his rushing statistics after having a decline from his 1,000+ yard performance in 2008. Unfortunately, for Maryland, the Terps are also inexperienced at quarterback in Jamarr Robinson. He has only thrown a career 134 passes in college and is somewhat of a gamble. Maryland should end the 2011 season at 8-4 and another bowl appearance.
 
1. Florida State Seminoles: The Noles' capped their ACC runner-up title with a solid victory over a talented South Carolina team in 2010's Chick-fil-a Bowl. The loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies in the ACC Championship has left the Seminoles hungry for another title run in 2011. With the exception of the game against Clemson, Florida State put up a minimum of 24 points in each game of 2010. Jimbo Fisher was a happy camper on national signing day as he inked the nation's top recruiting class. This was a major accomplishment for him considering he also had a blue chip class the year prior. When young talent comes around in consecutive years, teams are able to develop depth and become stronger as the season progresses. Florida State should do just that as Virginia Tech is not on the schedule in 2011. The only true road conference test they have on the slate is the fourth game of the season at Clemson. And, from an overall perspective, if the Noles get past the Sooners of Oklahoma on September 17th, they should be poised to make a run at the national championship.

Key ACC Atlantic Division Game: Oct. 22nd, Maryland at Florida State

ACC Atlantic Division MVP: Montel Harris, Running Back, Senior, Boston College



Up Next -- ACC Coastal Division Preview

College Football Preview 2011: Big East

Even though the Big East does not have a single team ranked in the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll and only one that barely made the Associate Press' Top 25, the conference will still crown a champion.  And this conference champion will ultimately qualify for the the BCS, most likely to be played in Miami at the Orange Bowl.  That said, just because West Virginia happens to be that aforementioned ranked squad, don't be surprised to see them as the "beast of the Big East" come November.  With only 11 days left until we kickoff the 2011 college football season, here is my Big East projected order of finish from worst to best.

8. Rutgers: Finishing 2010 by going 4-8 on the season and losing the last 6 games is not the type of year you want to have especially if you're coach Greg Shiano who has seen better days during his tenure in New Jersey.  The Scarlet Knights' schedule is somewhat favorable this season with only three away Big East games.  They'll play at Syracuse, at Louisville and finish out the regular season at Connecticut.  Ah, if only they had the talent.  A group that finished so poorly last season returns much of the same inconsistent talent it had last year. The quarterback position is also suspect for Shiano's group.  Same bad talent will equal a similar bad season for Rutgers.

7. Syracuse Orange: While they finished 8-5 last year including a very close victory in the New Era Pinstripe bowl over Kansas State, I don't think they'll be able to recapture the magic they discovered in 2010.  They play host to West Virginia on Oct. 21st which will most likely be a loss followed by a difficult matchup the next week in Louisville against the Cardinals.  These could potentially be two unaffordable mid-season losses with a nail in the coffin if they close the season out by losing to the Panthers in Pittsburgh.  The team is lead by junior quarterback Ryan Nassib who tossed for over 2,300 yards last year and touted better than a 2:1 TD to interception ratio.


6. South Florida Bulls: B.J. Daniels should be back on track to direct the Bulls to another winning season after going 8-5 in 2010 including a win over Clemson in the Car Care Bowl last New Year's Eve.  He struggled at times as a freshman, but he should be poised for a much more successful sophomore year.  Unfortunately, for the Bulls, they open conference play at Pittsburgh on Sep. 29th and a home finale against West Virginia.  If they can get past these two key games they could be this year's sleeper team.


5. Cincinnati Bearcats: Like Rutgers, they went 4-8 last season and didn't show much sign of improvement along the way by dropping 5 of their last 6 games.  The upside for this team is the return of offensive seniors Zach Collaros, Isaiah Pead, Orion Woodard and D.J. Woods.  Collaros finished 98 passing yards shy of hitting the milestone of 3,000.  I'd like to think he reaches that goal in 2011.  He'll be protected by an experienced offensive line.  Three of which are seniors..  If this team can stay cool under pressure they should have an exciting season.


4. Connecticut Huskies: The Huskies got hot late in 2010 and won their last 5 games that sent them to the Fiesta Bowl to represent the Big East in the BCS.  That game turned out to be a tough one for them as they were manhandled by Oklahoma 48-20.  I strongly believe the Huskies hit their apex last season and are destined for a fall from the top.  Every now and again any given conference will experience a dark horse to rise from the ashes of years past and play exceptional football for one season only to fizzle out for several more afterward.  I see the Huskies set to face this same demise in 2011.  They play on the road at West Virginia and Pittsburgh this season and include a very weak non-conference schedule in Fordham, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Buffalo and Western Michigan.  Even if the Big East is projected to have a down year as a conference, these five teams aren't exactly powerhouses.  

3. Louisville Cardinals: Second year head coach Charlie Strong posted what most considered to be the top recruiting class in the Big East when he brought his Florida recruiting pipeline to Louisville, Kentucky.  Key additions at the skill positions and some strong acquisitions to the defensive side of the ball should drastically improve a Cardinals team that finished 2010 with a 7-6 record overall and sub par 3-4 record in conference play.  I certainly do not expect to witness shutout and near-shutout losses from Strong's team this season.  His squad's victory over Southern Miss in last year's Beef O'Brady's Bowl should have increased the veterans' confidence levels and excited the newcomers.  The Cardinals will kickoff the 2011 season for all of college football when they tangle with Murray State on Sep. 1st.  While that game may seem like a gimme, the last four match-ups on their schedule are anything but that.   Three of them are on the road at West Virginia, Connecticut and South Florida.  The other is a home game against Pitt.  These four competitions will most likely decide just how far the Cardinals will actually go in the race to win the Big East.

2. West Virginia Mountaineers: The primary reason behind this, despite the fact they have a new head coach at the helm in Dana Halgorsen, is due to their strength of schedule.  Their last four games include home and away matchups against Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and finally South Florida.  The home game against the LSU Tigers on Sept. 24th will help prep them, but not so sure they'll get the job done down the stretch.  So I guess you could call West Virginia my default #2 team in the conference.

1. Pittsburgh Panthers: Look for first year head coach Todd Graham to do something former coach Dave Wannstedt could never do: Win a Big East title outright.  Wannstedt always talked the talk on the recruiting trail but simply could not walk the walk on the field.  With good talent returning in 2011 coupled with a not-so-tough schedule, Todd Graham should be on his way to first year utopia and a berth in the BCS.  One of his contributors should without a doubt be junior running back Ray Graham (no relation).  Graham's rushing yards and touchdowns have both doubled from his freshman to sophomore years.  I expect those numbers to nearly double once again this season, and, with an experienced offensive line, he should maintain his 6.2 yards per carry from a year ago.  The Panthers play conference road games at Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia.  The rest of the schedule falls in their favor to finish on top.



Big East Game of the Year: Oct. 25th, Pittsburgh at West Virginia


Big East MVP: Ray Graham, Running Back, Junior, Pittsburgh




Up Next  -- ACC Preview